Umalytic Model
How Umalytic Works
Pre-match probabilities, not betting advice.
What Umalytic is
Umalytic is a pre-match tennis probability platform. It estimates the likelihood of each player winning a match from historical data and match context so the read is easier to inspect before play starts. It does not provide tips, picks, or betting recommendations.
What a probability means
When Umalytic shows a probability, it is not predicting a certain outcome. It is measuring uncertainty.
For example, when the model assigns a 60% probability, matches with similar conditions have historically been won about 60% of the time.
Probabilities are evaluated using historical out-of-sample data.
Calibrated probabilities
The model is calibrated. This means that its probabilities are statistically consistent with real outcomes.
On average, the difference between predicted probabilities and observed frequencies is below 2.5 percentage points. This property is known as calibration and is essential for interpreting probabilities correctly.
What it does
- Estimates pre-match probabilities based on data
- Updates features with recent matches
- Accounts for surface, form, and match context
- Preserves uncertainty
What it does NOT do
- Does not guarantee winners
- Does not optimize for streaks or win rate
- Does not suggest bets
- Does not replace personal judgment
About metrics
Many sports platforms highlight accuracy or winning percentages. Umalytic focuses on probability quality instead.
A model can guess more winners and still provide misleading probabilities. Umalytic prioritizes statistical consistency over binary correctness.
Accuracy is not shown because it does not measure probability quality.
Live operating quality
Latest resolved-outcome snapshot
Live quality is tracked separately from offline release metrics. The readout below summarizes the latest DB-backed snapshot over resolved predictions for the active release.
Coverage 7d
100.0%
23 terminal / 23 eligible
ECE 30d
0.1582
130 resolved predictions
LogLoss 30d
0.6382
Probability-quality error, lower is better.
PSI By Surface
0.1325
Latest drift maximum across surfaces.
Window 30d
Brier: 0.2259
Sample sufficient: No
ECE gate: insufficient sample
Window 90d
ECE: 0.1582
LogLoss: 0.6382
Sample sufficient: No
Snapshot computed: Mar 26, 2026, 06:26 PM UTC | Reference state: ok.
Transparency and versioning
Model transparency
Each probability is generated using a versioned model with fixed logic and calibration. The metadata shown here comes from the backend runtime state, not from frontend environment variables.
Recent match data updates player features, but the model itself remains unchanged until a new version is released.
Version provenance
Metadata source: Runtime manifest
Manifest status: Loaded
Runtime status: Ready
Runtime loaded: Apr 19, 2026, 12:01 AM UTC
Ensemble strategy: weighted_average
Limits and operating rules
- Production uses frozen model logic until a deliberate version release happens.
- Feature freshness can change with recent match data without silently changing the model version.
- Probabilities remain informational only and are not a promise of outcome or financial gain.
Umalytic is an analytical tool. All decisions remain the user's responsibility.